ALTERNATIVE SOURCES OF ENERGY CARRIERS SUPPLY
TO BELARUS - PR ACTION OR REALITY

Oleg Muslovets
Director of Financial News Agency internet resource (Belarus)

General information

Gas

In 2006, Gazprom delivered about 21 billion cubic meters of gas to Belarus. According to the document, in 2007 Gazprom will deliver 21,8 billion cubic meters of gas to the Republic. The contract determines the price for Russian gas during the deliveries in 2007 - 100 USD for 1,000 cubic meters and the price formula since January 1, 2008 (corresponding to the price formula during deliveries of Russian gas to Europe; first of all it depends on the market condition and market prices for the oil products’ basket). Signature of the long-term contract of gas supplies allows a gradual, within four years, transition to the market prices of gas for Belarus.

Till July 1, 2007, Belarus had a respite concerning its payment for gas, paying only 55 percent of the contract price.

Oil refining and oil supplies

In 2006, Belarus’s oil refining volume grew in 7,3 percent, up to 21,25 million tons, after its growth in 7,3 percent in 2005 and in 17 percent in 2004. In 2007, the balance of Russia’s oil deliveries should be 21,5 million tons.

In January - May 2007, Belarus’s initial oil refining volume reduced by 2,3 percent in comparison with January - May 2006, and was 8,77 million tons. In May 2007, Belarusan oil refineries processed 1.87 million tons of oil, which is 5,7 percent more in comparison with May 2006. In comparison with April 2007, the refining volume in May grew in 2,5 percent after its reduction in 2,4 percent in April and growth in March in 14,3 percent.

According to the data of Statistics Ministry, in January - May 2007, in comparison with January - May 2006, the petrol production volume grew in 2,7 percent, up to 1414,8 thousand tons. The diesel oil production volume was 2794 thousand tons, having increased in 1 percent, furnace fuel oil - 2623,2 thousand tons (reduction in 11,9 percent), grease oil - 68,3 thousand tons (growth in 12,8 percent).

In January - May 2007, the Russian oil companies delivered to Belarusan oil refineries 7,5 million tons of oil, which is 16 percent less in comparison with January - May 2006. The rest processing volume is provided at the expense of 2006 carryovers and its own oil production (in January - May, 720,8 thousand tons).

Oil production

In January - May 2007, Belorusneft extracted 720,785 thousand tons of oil, which is 1,1 percent less in comparison with January - May 2006.

In May 2007, the production volume was 145,065 thousand tons, which is 1,2 percent less in comparison with May 2006. In comparison with April 2007, the oil production volume in May grew in 0,3 percent after its reduction in 2,7 percent in April.

In January - May 2007, Belarus has not exported oil of its own production because it had to fill its oil refineries, which incurred a raw material deficit because of a give-and-take processing decrease. In 2006, about 75 percent of oil production volume was exported.

In 2006, Belarus reduced its oil recovery in 0,3 percent, up to 1780 thousand tons, after its decrease in 1,1 percent in 2005. In 2007, it is planned to extract 1,76 million tons.

In 2006, 40 percent of all Belarusan oil export (re-export) went to Germany; thus it did actually support A. Lukashenko's regime.

Transit

In 2007, the transit of gas will provide the country’s budget with 78,8 million USD, while in 2008 - 2010, on the average, 80,4 million USD. In 2006, the proceeds of the transit of 44,2 billion cubic meters of natural gas through the territory of Belarus were 235,5 million USD, fiscal charges - 51,8 million USD. In 2007, the predicted proceeds from the transit of 45,7 billion cubic meters of gas will be 393,9 million USD. In 2008 - 2010, the natural gas transit should be 47,3 billion cubic meters annually with the annual proceeds of 401,9 million USD every year.

All volume parameters and tariffs of the transit, as well as the price for gas delivered to Belarus, are determined by the contract between Gazprom and Beltransgaz for 2007 - 2011.

In 2006, the oil transit on the territory of Belarus was 78,8 million tons which brought 179,9 million USD, the fiscal charges were at the level of 43,7 million USD. It is planned that in 2007 the transit will transport 70,4 million tons of oil, the proceeds should be 196,2 million USD, the budget must receive 52,1 million USD.

By 2010, it is planned to increase the oil transit through Belarus up to 87,4 million tons and the proceeds and fiscal charges in 2010 at the level of accordingly 223,3 million USD and 46,8 million USD. There is one condition - a resumption of the transit through the Novopolotsk-based Oil Transportation National Unitary Enterprise Druzhba. Besides, it is not absolutely clear why the Belarusan bureaucrats are so sure that by 2010 the oil pumping tariffs will be at the same level as today. Unlike gas, the oil pumping tariffs are not fixed by the agreement till 2011.

One more very important point is for some reason missed by our government. Vice-premier Semashko signed the given decree on June 1, that is two weeks after it became known about the order of Russian government concerning the beginning of a construction of BTS-2, the oil pipeline round about Belarus, with the use of the Russian port Primorsk on the Baltic Sea.

It is planned that this oil pipeline’s pumping power will be 50 - 74 million tons annually, and due to the minimal terms of construction this oil pipeline will be started by the end of 2008. Thus, it is quite possible that both in 2009 and 2010 the Belarusan government will have to introduce other changes as there will be no incomes and tax revenue from such kind of activity as the oil transit.

The beginning of the alternative sources topic

In April 2006, Gazprom declared a price rise for gas delivered to Belarus since 2007, and it actually became the beginning of the Belarus-Russia oil-and-gas war. The basic events took place at the New Year’s eve and were finished by signing the contract with Gazprom and the agreement on oil deliveries. However, prior to the conflict’s peak, the Belarusan side started a state propaganda of alternative sources of energy (atomic power station) and possible alternative deliveries of power resources to the country.

Various countries-suppliers and routes of oil deliveries to Belarus were mentioned. A purchase of oil from world exchanges was discussed, and in this case it would be the best variant for development of democracy in the country. It took efforts of all international expert community, so that in February 2007 the first vice-premier of Belarus V. Semashko did admit that Russian oil petroleum with the existing entrance duty of 53 USD for a ton is cheaper than oil bought from world exchanges.

During a meeting of the Commission To Increase Economy Competitiveness on February, 21 in Vitebsk, Semashko also declared that the use of the Baltic terminals for oil transportation to Belarus is now economically unprofitable.

According to the first vice-premier’s words, the matter of oil transportation through the Baltic port terminals is secondary - first of all, it is necessary to decide when and where from oil should be taken.

This matter is not settled yet - oil is still purchased in Russia and it will still be bought there.

In his address to the people and parliament concerning alternative deliveries of oil, Lukashenko announced that “Belarus’s economy can’t and shouldn’t depend on one supplier of power resources. Now, it’s too risky.” (The President’s style is preserved.)

“We’ve got strong and friendly relations with Iran and Venezuela who have significant stocks of power supplies. These countries’ governments are ready to cooperate with us, and we mustn’t miss this opportunity. First of all, we talk about a joint production and processin’ of raw materials. And Belarus will be able to receive oil not only for its own needs, but also for a subsequent sale at the world market”, Lukashenko explained.

As he said, the infrastructure development must be helped by further diversification of deliveries, and a special significance here is given to an expansion of possibilities of raw material transportation from the Baltic and Black Seas regions.

“In Russia recently, there’s a huge question, “Will Lukashenko really carry oil from Azerbaijan, Iran and Venezuela to Belarus, when Russian oil in this case is more profitable? Well, certainly, we won’t carry. Of course, not. Cuz Russia doesn’t refuse oil, gas and other natural resources’ deliveries to us. It ain’t the matter,” continued Lukashenko.

“As Russia’s interested in bigger sales of these oil products and natural gas, we is interested in receivin’ ‘em and their low prices. It’s very important for us to earn additional means in order to buy the goods we need, no matter who sell ‘em,” explained Lukashenko, - “That’s why, we ain’t gonna today, ain’t gonna yet, brin’ oil here from Venezuela and Iran (pause) … countries of the Persian gulf… (pause). It ain’t the matter. Today, the question is that we ain’t sure that a similar crisis which occurred last winter, won’t happen again.”

“The most important problem we’ve faced - Sidorsky and Semashko can prove it, too - is that we didn’t have no alternative of oil delivery even for higher prices. It took us about ten days to find suppliers. They, suppliers, ain’t the problem, too, - there was lotsa offers and the prices was pretty normal. But cuz of our policy and lower prices than in Russia, I’ve refused ‘em,” Lukashenko said.

“It’s very important for us to have our oil production in these states. And if it ain’t our own, then we gotta have the really worked out ways of oil deliveries to our refineries. And if suddenly something happen, we won’t be lookin’ no more for a tanker, a credit or somethin’ like that - we’ll have this planned scheme. And let it be 30 - 40… Vladimir Ilyich (Semashko), I guess it’s 40 bucks higher if we get it from distant countries- - Plus 36 bucks, but we’ll kneel to nobody,” Lukashenko explained.

“36 bucks more, it’s somebody else’s oil, and maybe our own would be identical to Russian one or even slightly lower. This is the essence of this policy. You gotta understand that it’s what we need, and we have today an alternative in case of crisis. If our economy works well, we’ll keep workin’. I’m sure we’ll also work with Venezuela, unequivocally, there’s our friends there,” Lukashenko said.

“It’s a really friendly policy. They’ve offered us their oil fields where they already work - take ‘em, today two, and tomorrow ten million tons, while you’ll develop new, perspective ones. Also, they is ready to purchase from us - they need any kinds of goods. They is concerned with their import diversification as well. For some reasons, they gotta buy in the USA TV-sets, fridges and other stuff that we have. Sheiman can tell you the results of his latest trip. They ask us to deliver it to them,” Lukashenko said.

“We can take from them what we need and deliver them what they need and what we have. That’s the essence of this policy, not that Lukashenko will refuse cheaper oil and will take 40 bucks higher oil from Venezuela,” he said.

“I stress, today it’s an alternative in case of crisis. I’m sure, in case of our most serious study with these states, we will easily take oil from Azerbaijan, Iran and Venezuela, and it’ll be at the same level as from Russia,” Lukashenko is convinced.

“It ain’t no stab in the back of Russia. It ain’t no refusal from the Russian vector. It’s a normal, as Putin says, market position,” Lukashenko said, “We must choose where it’s better. If Russia will offer us a better price, certainly, we’ll be with Russia, certainly we’ll buy there, and certainly we’ll pay what we have for it.”

Meanwhile, as repeatedly Lukashenko and vice-premier Semashko declared, Belarus is working on investigation and research of oil fields in Venezuela and Iran, also studying possibilities of delivery of Azerbaijani oil to the country. Therefore, each of these projects must be studied in more detail.

Iran

Development of the Iranian topic began within the framework of cooperation with the country that supports the Non-Aligned Movement. In November 2006, after Putin’s sharp speeches, A. Lukashenko visited this country, and it became the beginning of Belarus-Iran oil hysteria.

The visits’ results, including M. Ahmadinejad's latest visit to Minsk in May, are:
- Cooperation agreement in the sphere of education;
- Agreements in the banking sector, investments and a bank creation;

As a whole, it is possible to say that the Iranian capital is not against participation in such a profitable sphere of Belarusan economy as the real estate. Still, this capital is ready to enter Belarus only through a joint bank - the Iranians seem to give a special attention to the control over distribution of the future investments. Besides, creation of a joint bank on the territory of Belarus will allow it (the bank) to work as a financial buffer between Iran and the civilized world that does not like this Arabian country because of its interest to the "peace" nuclear programmes.

The sides are interested in cooperation in the nuclear topic as well. However, Belarus does not expect Iran’s help in this matter as the nuclear station is being built by the Russian experts whom Iran still must pay nearly 100 million USD.

The price of the matter:
“A huge potential” is evaluated in 35,5 million USD of the mutual trade turnover in 2006: MAZ will ostensibly be produced in Iran, while Samands - in Belarus.

Besides, when at the end of 2006, the price rise for the Russian power supplies became inevitable, the Belarusan side (Belorusneft) prepared and gave Iran a general plan of the development of the Iranian oil field of Jofeir.

“I’m especially grateful to the President of Iran for his support of our country in such a sensitive question as production of hydrocarbonaceous raw materials,” A. Lukashenko was full of thanks to the Iranian side.

“With a good grace, you’ve done all the Belarusan side asked you of and given us the field we expected. Our experts studied it and now is ready to extract oil today on the Iranian territory,” he said.

Still, Iran does not want to invest into the oil production sphere on its own territory, and attracts less developed countries into this process. Thus, the Belarusan side has to seek for money for the development of the Jofeir field in other countries, e.g. in Vietnam.

Meanwhile, the Iranian side expects Belorusneft to sign the development contract of the Jofeir field already till the end of June. An official representative of the Iranian Oil Engineering and Development Company said it on Sunday, before the visit of the President of Iran to Belarus, Dow Jones Newswires informs.

“We’ve asked the Belarusan company to finish negotiations concerning the development plan of the Jofeir field till the end of June in order to sign the contract of the development in time. And the Belarusan company has accepted this condition…,” Mehdi Bazargan, manager of the Iranian Oil Engineering and Development Company, said.

However, if Belorusneft would like to involve in the field development an additional investor, the Belarusan company will have to receive a correspondent sanction from the Iranian Oil Engineering and Development Company. The other financial arrangements of the given project are not disclosed, but it is known that the Belarusan side receives no shares in this field: Belorusneft will return its investments into the development and all its profits with the help of oil extracted from this field, i.e. there will be no money, and it will have to sell the oil.

The Jofeir field itself is situated in the province of Qujestan (Southwest of Iran) on the Iran - Iraq border, which is rich in oil. According to preliminary data, this field will allow to extract about 4,1 thousand tons of crude oil every day (about 1,5 million tons annually).

Iran itself says that Belarus can do whatever it wants with the extracted oil - whether to pump it to ports or to build oil refineries. And such a declaration concerning the oil refineries’ construction is not groundless. Iran’s dependence on petrol import is known well: the country imports about 40 percent of petrol consumed in the country.

Venezuela

The Belarusan authorities repeat unceasingly Chavez has promised Lukashenko some oil fields in the river basin of Orinoco where there are the biggest known oil reserves in the world, 236 billion barrels. In case of their development, the Belarusan fields will allow to extract up to 10 million tons annually. According to Vice-premier Semashko, Belarus needs Venezuelan oil in order to “dilute the expensive Russian one.”

The President of Venezuela Hugo Chavez has declared his solution to give Belarus some petroliferous zones in addition to those which were agreed upon earlier. In these new zones that have an advanced infrastructure, it is already now possible to conduct an oil recovery up to two millions tons annually.

The story with water in two wellsites - an oil emulsion already delivered to Baltic thermal power stations (the price is 70 USD per ton). Its processing needs special equipment.

“In 2007, we plan to begin practical oil recovery in Venezuela,” Osipenko said, “Now it is possible to extract up to 2 million tons of oil annually.” He confirmed that Belarus plans to sell the oil extracted in Venezuela at the neighbouring countries’ markets, while the obtained means will be used to purchase power resources from Russian companies.

Osipenko also informed that the development of foreign oil fields becomes the basis of foreign policy of Belarus.

“Our search for new oil suppliers and a possibility of participation in the oil fields’ development at the given stage is a priority in foreign policy of Belarus,” he said, “It is highly important for Belarus to diversify its purchases of hydrocarbonaceous raw materials.”

At the same time, Osipenko’s speech does not clarify who will extract those two million tons of Venezuelan oil for Belarus which “must be extracted right now.” As, according to his words, Belarus is going to create a joint oil producing enterprise with Venezuela and to begin an oil recovery in this country only in 2008. It is doubtful that the Venezuelan President has liked Belarus so much that in addition to petroliferous fields he will give us his oilmen to extract "Belarusan" oil. It means two million tons of Venezuelan oil in 2007 is nearly the same as the Chinese space station on Moon by 2010.

Then, the authorities started to speak more carefully about the plans of oil extracting in Venezuela, saying 2009 will be the year when the first two million tons will be extracted. Who will purchase this oil- The USA has not cancelled their Act of Democracy.

Meanwhile, the sides are creating the joint venture of seismic exploration SeismoVenBel. Its founder from the Venezuelan side will be the Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA, from the Belarusan side - Belorusneft which, according to Decree № 568 by the Council of Ministers will invest 20,000 USD into the statutory fund. It is necessary to note that despite of strong friendship of the two countries’ presidents, in the created joint venture the share of the Belarusan side will only be 40 percent, which is better than nothing in the relations with Iran, but worse than with Russia which offers all who want to participate in competitions on the oil fields’ development a creation of joint ventures on parity conditions (51 percent - Russia, 49 percent - the investor).

Beside oil, there are some more projects. As of March 24, 2007, between Belarus and Venezuela, there are 22 agreements, contracts and memoranda, including the agreement on gasification of some settlements and cities of Venezuela, construction of a town nearby Caracas for 5,000 flats by Belarusan builders and experts.

Also, there is an agreement to build in Venezuela a brick factory with capacity of 100 million bricks annually on the basis of the equipment produced by Belarusan enterprises. Another agreement is to create a joint venture to produce construction materials, concrete blocks and plates. Construction of a phosphate factory and creation of a joint venture to assemble tractors and lorries were discussed. Venezuela studied the question of purchase from Belarus the means of antiaircraft defence. During Hugo Chavez’s visit to Minsk last July, the enterprise Tetrahedron presented its modernized antiaircraft rocket complexes Pechora-2Т and Оsа-1Т.

However, friendship with Chavez appeared not because of Belarus’s worsening relations with Russia. This friendship was urgently needed when it became clear that the Cuban leader Fidel Castro has not much time left. Belarus began to transfer its assets (money of the authorities) into the country with a more predicted regime.

Azerbaijan

“There is our ill-wishers who sometimes disapprove our sharply growing cooperation but we cooperate not contrary to them but for the good to our peoples,” A. Lukashenko declared in Baku after his meeting with the President of Azerbaijan I. Aliyev, “Some ill-wishers consider this cooperation as some PR. It ain’t no PR,” he emphasized, “We ain’t gonna agglomerate against nobody, we want those who can to join our projects.”

The relations between the two countries include the agreement between the National banks of the two countries about cooperation, the inter-governmental agreement on mutual protection of classified information, the working agreement in the field of veterinary science, as well as cooperation in the field of quarantine and plant protection, about labour activity and social protection of the citizens who work temporarily on the territories of the two countries. There are also interdepartmental working agreements in the field of management of state property and privatization, about cooperation in the field of standardization, the agreement between the Ministry of Finance of Belarus and the State Committee of Valuable Papers of the President of Azerbaijan. The programme of bilateral cooperation in the nearest three years between the national academies of sciences of Belarus and Azerbaijan is especially inspiring.
The government of Belarus, unlike A. Lukashenko, is not going to refuse plans of alternative delivery of oil to Belarus. Vice-premier A. Kobyakov said about it after a visit of a state delegacy to Azerbaijan.

According to his words, now “various schemes of cooperation” with Azerbaijan are studied, including the variant of delivery of Azerbaijan oil through the pipeline Odessa - Brody.

A grandiose task to increase the trade turnover between Belarus and Azerbaijan from 37 million USD in 2000 up to almost half a billion USD in 2 - 3 years has been stated, even though neither deliveries of assembling sets of MAZ lorries and MTZ tractors, nor plans on creation in Azerbaijan a refrigerator production will help it.

“The project of production of gas meters is also alive. Despite of the territorial affinity of Turkey, the light industry enterprises at the Azerbaijani market have not reached its peak yet,” the vice-premier calmed himself.

Thus, the only way to increase the trade turnover is to deliver oil to Belarus by pipeline or by train through Georgia to Batumi, therefrom by tanker to Odessa, and from Ukraine by already mentioned pipeline Odessa - Brody in a revertive mode up to Belarusan oil refineries. Still, it can happen that oil pumping by this pipeline to Belarus may become possible only if the Belarusan authorities will set free A. Kozulin and other political prisoners - similar conditions were announced by France before it proposed the project on construction of an atomic power station in Belarus.

Poland and the European Union also expect Azerbaijani oil to be supplied by this pipeline. Europe’s third part of oil and 44 percent of gas arrive to Europe from Russia. As for Poland, Russian oil and gas constitute 90 percent at the Polish market. Taking into account the historical character of mutual relations of Poland with Russia, this fact does concern Polish society. Similar problems are in the Baltic states. Thus, nobody thinks of Belarus right now.

Kazakhstan

On June 6, 2007, Belarus and Kazakhstan considered a possibility of oil and electric power deliveries to Belarus from Kazakhstan, the prime minister of Belarus Ivan Bambiza told journalists in Minsk. “During the meeting of the Belarus-Kazakhstan inter-governmental commission on trade and economic cooperation, we’ve discussed our interaction in the energy sphere, including the possibility of oilstock and electric power deliveries, as well as the oil transit from Kazakhstan by the oil pipeline Druzhba,” he said.

And this is what the President of Kazakhstan says about cooperation with the Belarusan "enemy", “Cooperation between Kazakhstan and Russia in oil-and-gas sphere has a strategic character, and mutual obligations are large and long-term. The Kazakh raw material is successfully transported to the world markets by long distance pipelines of Russia, there is a joint processing of hydrocarbonaceous raw material. Our countries are the principal shareholders of the Caspian pipeline consortium. Kazakhstan and Russia, in a bilateral format, have settled the matter of separation of a shelf of the Caspian sea and agreed to jointly conduct investigation and production on three large deposits of the shelf, including the Russian companies Lukoil and Rosneft.

By the way, Lukoil participates in Kazakhstan in 11 oil projects. Gazprom becomes more active, too. Last year, we came to an agreement about construction of a joint gas processing complex on the basis of Orenburg-based oil refineries. After it starts working, the Russian gas transportation system will get approximately 15 billion cubic metres of gas. Our countries fruitfully cooperate in the field of atomic engineering as well.”

Thus, a dense and intimate cooperation - Belarus will hardly get there.

Эканамічныя і палітычныя перспектывы Беларусі ва ўмовах рынкавай эканомікі

9—10 чэрвеня 2007 г.

Тэзісы

1. Аксиологические и экономические детерминанты общественного выбора Беларуси в 2007 – 2015 годах. Леонид Заико, руководитель аналитического центра “Стратегия”, экономист (Беларусь).
Аксіялагічныя і эканамічныя дэтэрмінанты грамадскага выбару Беларусі ў 2007 – 2015 гадах. Леанід Заіка, кіраўнік аналітычнага цэнтра “Стратэгія”, эканаміст (Беларусь).

2. Возможности повышения уровня жизни населения Беларуси в условиях роста цен на энергоносители. Леонид Злотников, кандидат экономических наук (Беларусь).
Магчымасці павышэння ўзроўню жыцця насельніцтва Беларусі ва ўмовах росту коштаў на энерганосьбіты. Леанід Злотнікаў, кандыдат эканамічных навук (Беларусь).
Ways to increase the living standard of the population of Belarus in the context of the energy carriers’ price rise. Leonid Zlotnikov, Economic Sciences Candidate (Belarus).

3. Українські реалії і білоруські перспективи: уроки, загрози, можливості. Андрій Кирчів, аналітик (Україна).
Украінскія рэаліі і беларускія перспектывы: урокі, пагрозы, магчымасці. Андрэй Кірчыў, аналітык (Украіна).
Ukrainian realities and belarusan prospects: lessons, threats, possibilities. Andrei Kirchiv, analyst (Ukraine).

4. Праблемы рынкавай трансфармацыі Беларусі. Кірыл Коктыш, кандыдат палітычных навук, дацэнт кафедры палітычнай тэорыі МДІМЗ (У) МЗС (Расія).

5. Трансформационные задачи Беларуси. Михаил Маринич, экс-министр внешнеэкономических связей Беларуси, экс-посол Беларуси в Латвии, Эстонии и Финляндии, доктор наук (Беларусь).
Трансфармацыйныя задачы Беларусі. Міхаіл Марыніч, экс-міністр знешнеэканамічных сувязяў Беларусі, экс-амбасадар Беларусі ў Латвіі, Эстоніі і Фінляндыі, доктар навук (Беларусь).

6. Альтернативные источники поставок энергоносителей Беларусь – пиар-акция или реальность Олег Мусловец, директор Интернет-ресурса Агентство финансовых новостей (Беларусь).
Альтэрнатыўныя крыніцы пастаўкі энерганосьбітаў у Беларусь — піяр-акцыя альбо рэчаіснасць? Алег Муславец, дырэктар інтэрнэт-рэсурсу “Агенцтва фінансавых навінаў” (Беларусь)
Alternative sources of energy carriers supply to Belarus – PR action or reality. Oleg Muslovets, Director of Financial News Agency internet resource (Belarus).

7. Паміж Масквой і Бруселем (перспектывы “новай” знешняй палітыкі Беларусі). Уладзімір Роўда, кандыдат філасофскіх навук, дацэнт кафедры паліталогіі ЕГУ (Беларусь)
Between Moscow and Brussels (prospects of Belarus’s new foreign policy). Uladzimir Rouda, Philosophic Sciences Candidate (Belarus).

8. Досвід України у формуванні системи енергетичної безпеки та можливості його застосування в Білорусі. Соскін Олег Ігорович, директор Інституту трансформації суспільства, професор, завідувач кафедри міжнародної економіки та підприємництва Національної академії управління (Україна).
Досвед Украіны ў фармаванні сістэмы энергетычнай бяспекі і магчымасці яго прымянення ў Беларусі. Алег Соскін, дырэктар Інстытута трансфармацыі грамадства, прафесар Нацыянальнай акадэміі кіравання (Украіна)

9. Внутриполитические последствия нефтегазового кризиса. Виктор Чернов, политолог, исполнительный директор ОО “Открытое общество”, Сергей Николюк, политический обозреватель (Беларусь).
Унутрыпалітычныя наступствы нафтагазавага крызісу. Віктар Чарноў, палітолаг, выканаўчы дырэктар ГА “Адкрытае грамадства”, Сяргей Нікалюк, палітычны аглядальнік (Беларусь).
Internal political consequences of the oil-and-gas crisis. Viktar Charnou, political scientist, executive director of PA “Open Society”, Siarhej Nikolyuk, political observer (Belarus).